Moderna Faces Sharp Decline After Lowering 2025 Revenue Forecast

Moderna’s stock, which had surged earlier this month following a positive earnings surprise and a $176 million award for its bird flu vaccine, has taken a significant hit. After rising from $39.38 to $47.43 in just a week, the vaccine maker saw its stock plummet by 21.16%, dropping to $33.20 today following a downgrade to its 2025 revenue outlook.
The company revised its annual revenue forecast for 2025, now expecting between $1.5 billion and $2.5 billion, down from the previous estimate of $2.5 billion to $3.5 billion. This revision comes amid several challenges, including increased competition in the Covid-19 vaccine market, declining vaccination rates, and uncertainty surrounding manufacturing contracts and recommendations for RSV revaccination.
Despite the volatility in Moderna’s stock, its long-term value is ultimately tied to its performance. According to GuruFocus, Moderna’s score stands at 58 out of 100, reflecting weak profitability, moderate growth, and strong capital strength. While Moderna thrived during the Covid-19 pandemic thanks to its successful mRNA-based vaccine, the company has struggled to maintain profitability outside of the pandemic-driven surge.
Moderna’s financial history suggests it needs at least $10 billion in annual revenue to achieve profitability. With its revised forecast of $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion, the company is on track to post a loss, signaling potential challenges ahead. As the market adjusts to these new expectations, Moderna’s ability to pivot and secure stable revenue streams will be key to its long-term success.